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Possible modifiers of future livestock production and consumption trends

 Possible modifiers of future livestock production and consumption trends

(a) Competition for resources

(i) Land

On the suitable land of the humid–sub humid zones, some rise in production is likely to occur where this is possiblethrough the use of improved pastures and effective management. In the more arid and semiarid areas, livestock are a key mechanism for managing risk.However increases of population are fragmenting rangelands in many places and making difficult for pastoralists to gain access to the feed and water resources that they have traditionally been able to access.In the future, grazing systems will increasingly provide ecosystem goods and services that are traded.But it is not clear, how future livestock production from these systems may be affected. 

The mixed crop–livestock systems will continue to be critical to future food securitybecause two-thirds of the global population live in these systems.

(ii) Water

Globally freshwater resources are relatively scarce. Freshwater resources are only 2.5 per cent of all water resources (MA 2005).Groundwater has also plays an important role in water supply. Between 1.5 and 3 billion people depend on groundwater for drinking, and in some regions water tables are declining unremittingly (Rodell et al. 2009). By 2025, 64 per cent of the world's population will live in water-stressed basins, compared with 38 per cent today (Rosegrant et al.2002). 

Increasing numbers oflivestock in the future will clearly add to the demand for water, particularly in the production of livestock feed: one cubic metre of water can produce anything from about 0.5 kg of dry animal feed in North American grasslands to about 5 kg of feed in some tropical systems (Peden et al. 2007).

(b) Climate change

Climate change has effects on the global livestock sector. Increasing in the variability of climate will definitely increase livestock production risks as well as reduce the ability of farmers to manage these risks.Livestock food chains are the major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 18 per cent of total anthropogenic emissions.

(c) Socio-cultural modifiers

Social and cultural drivers of change are having profound effects on livestock systems in particular places. 

But it is often unclear how these drivers play out in relation to impacts on Ivestock and livestock systems. In human society livestock have multiple roles.

 They contribute significantly and directly to food security and to human health.For poor and under-nourished people particularly children, the addition of modest amounts of livestock products to their diets can have substantial benefits for physical and mental health (Neumann et al. 2003).

Increases demand for products of livestock wasmainly caused by human population growth, growth of income and urbanization. This will continue for the next three decades at least.

Globally, increases in livestock productivity have beengenerallycause by animal science and technology, and scientific and technological developments in breeding, nutrition and animal health.These developments of technological will contribute to increasing potential production and further efficiency and genetic gains. In developed countries, demand for livestock products in the futurecan be greatlymoderated by socio-economic factors such as human health concerns and changing socio-cultural values.

In the future, livestock production is likely to be increasingly characterized by differences between developed and developing countries, and between highly intensive production systems on the one hand and smallholder and agropastoral systems on the other. How the various driving forces will play out in different regions of the world in the coming decades is highly uncertain.

Can future demand for livestock products be met through sustainable intensification in a carbon-constrained economy? 

Increase of demand for livestock products willenhance to considerable competition for land between food and feed production.The increasing industrialization of livestock production may cause problems of pollution of air and water.

The largest impacts of climate change have to seen in livestock and mixed systems in developing countries where people are already highly vulnerable.The need to adapt to climate change and tomitigate greenhouse emissions will definitely add to the costs of production in different places and the projectedbiofuels growth may have large additional impacts on competition for land andon food security.






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